NBA Picks and Parlays by Our Experts 2021

The NBA season is one of the most interesting parts of the year from a sports betting perspective. With 82 games for each team during the season, it’s paramount to rely on NBA expert picks unless you’re some kind of stats savant. Each game produces tons of data to sift through and analyze and most of us mere mortals simply don’t have the time to do it.

Rebounds, steals, free throws, three throws, turnovers, we could go on forever, but that’s not why we’re here. We’re here to let you know that you don’t have to worry about any of it. The only percentage that you need to worry about is the hit rate and we’re not talking about Shaq’s free throws. We’re talking about experts who make NBA picks for a living. Their hit rate.

Set aside a few minutes and we’ll walk you through how relying on NBA picks can make or break your bankroll but first we’d like to start you off with a few of the best betting apps for your consideration. See you below!

T&C Apply, you must be at least 21 years old, please read all terms on the sportsbook site.
 T&C Apply, you must be at least 21 years old, please read all terms on the sportsbook site.
T&C Apply, you must be at least 21 years old, please read all terms on the sportsbook site.
T&C Apply, you must be at least 21 years old, please read all terms on the sportsbook site.

How to Place Value Bets on the NBA

The most efficient way to make money when you bet on the NBA is to spot value bets. What do we mean by that? Simply put, a value bet is any bet where there’s a possible mistake with the price, in YOUR favor.

Professional handicappers who supply NBA picks regularly know exactly where to look to identify value bets before the sportsbooks realize their mistake. It’s a bit of a cat and mouse game and you need to be several steps ahead and act swiftly. Let’s walk you through an example of how this works just to give you an idea of the time and effort that goes into NBA picks.

First, you need to know where to start looking. This may sound a bit morbid, but the injury list is a great place to start. Each team plays more than 80 games every season and players are often benched or sidelined due to injuries. Missing key players in the lineup will definitely affect the outcome of the game and this will also be reflected in the NBA picks.

Secondly, with so many NBA players on social media platforms, it’s possible to pick up valuable information in real time. Don’t underestimate the importance of a tweet or post on Facebook or Instagram. Announcements there can swing the odds quickly. You should always track your NBA picks to stay on top.

And last but not least, value bets can be found by following regular news outlets online. Everywhere and anywhere you can pick up valuable information is great!

What is the Best Way to Wager Using Our NBA Picks?

The best way to wager on our NBA picks is to do so responsibly with a strong bankroll management strategy. There are several ways to approach bankroll management in sports betting, as some bettors choose to wager the same amount on each game, while others choose to weight bets differently depending on how strongly they feel about those bets. Either way, setting strict amounts for those plans is essential to success.

The first and last rule of bankroll management is to never bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re dipping into your kids’ college fund, you’ve gone way too far. Always make sure your bills are paid before you start to wager on NBA picks. As a rule of thumb, don’t exceed 3% of your available bankroll on any single one bet or accumulator.

When should you wager on your selected NBA picks? This is an ongoing debate with two schools of thought. There are those who prefer to get their bets in as soon as possible in case the betting line moves, while others wait until the last minute to see if the line will move enough to generate value bets.

Moneyline NBA Picks

Moneyline NBA picks are usually quite interesting. While this is the easiest form of wagering to understand it can also be the toughest type of betting to do. When thinking of the best picks NBA fans have come to look for in the NBA betting marketplace, most bettors think of points spreads, totals and props mainly. But there are occasional spots where moneyline betting is warranted.

In the NBA moneyline market, you simply bet on which team to win. Sounds easy enough, right? For sure it sounds much easier than predicting who will beat the spread, but basketball odds are structured so that there is less value in betting on favorites. When betting NBA moneylines, bettors have to risk more money to win with favorites, while they can win more than they risk when betting underdogs.

For example, if the Denver Nuggets play the Houston Rockets, the Nuggets may be a -200 favorite while the Rockets may be priced at +150 as underdogs. In that case, you’d have to risk $200 to win $100 when betting on the Nuggets, or risk $100 on the Rockets to win $150. Bettors have to be careful with the moneyline for this reason, as constantly betting favorites isn’t guaranteed to be profitable.

Over/Under NBA Picks

Over/under betting in the NBA is a market where every single possession, pass, and shot feels important. In this market, bettors are asked to predict whether the total number of points scored in a basketball game will be over or under the total listed by a betting site going into the game. With the number of possessions that take place during a basketball game, this is a market where a ton of factors can determine the outcome of the bet. If you’re looking for NBA picks on over/under, you can bet your bottom dollar that plenty of research has been done.

When bettors wager on the over/under market, they have to think about the offensive and defensive efficiencies of each team on the court. But that’s just the beginning, as bettors also have to dive into the matchups that’ll take place between members of each position group on each team. They also have to consider the pace of each team, as the higher the pace on each side, the more shots will be taken, which could help the over.

The NBA best picks bettors include over/under plays regularly, as this is a market where bettors can frequently find value against the market. It’s a market where perception and reality often clash, as bettors expect teams with the best players to outscore the total regularly. But that’s not always a guarantee, as different combinations of paces and matchups have the potential to change the outcome of the total more than the star power on the floor.

Best NBA Betting Picks for the Regular Season

The majority of the free picks NBA fans will see over the course of the NBA season pertain to the regular season. With 82 games per team in the regular season, there are way more games to bet on in the regular season, which means more chances to find value in the betting markets. And bettors can count on more than single-game wagers like point spreads, totals, and moneylines.

Regular season futures wagers are also covered here, such as season win totals, division winner bets, and regular season award futures. Among the awards covered are the league MVP award, Coach of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, and Rookie of the Year.

These are the most prestigious individual honors a player can receive during the regular season, and the betting action on those awards can shift dramatically throughout the season.

Basically, for every betting market, there’s a person ready to offer their NBA picks.

NBA Eastern Conference Picks

The Eastern Conference in the NBA is the most competitive it’s been in quite some time, as several teams have improved dramatically in the conference over the last few years. The 2020-2021 NBA champion Milwaukee Bucks are the perfect example of a team rising rapidly in the East to win a championship. And this season, multiple teams will look to achieve the same thing the Bucks did.

In terms of the best NBA picks for the Eastern Conference, the Bucks are not a bad choice to win the conference title again this season. Despite winning the NBA Finals, Milwaukee was not the favorite to win the East this year, as the Brooklyn Nets were tabbed as the favorites to win the conference and NBA Finals before the season. But Milwaukee is largely the same team that won it all in 2021 and could do it again behind Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Below the Bucks, the New York Knicks could be a frisky choice to win the Eastern Conference. They improved their starting lineup dramatically in the offseason, swapping Elfrid Payton and Reggie Bullock at the guard spots with Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier. Those changes will make them a better offensive team by leaps and bounds, which could get them over the hump.

NBA Western Conference Picks

The Western Conference has been the superior conference in the NBA for decades, as teams like the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors have won the NBA Finals out of the West in recent years. This season, the competitive balance of the league is better than it’s been in a long time, and the Western Conference has several teams that could represent the conference in the Finals.

When looking at NBA betting tips on which team can win the Western Conference, the Denver Nuggets are as good a choice as anyone. They have the reigning NBA MVP in Nikola Jokic and some up and coming talent like Michael Porter Jr. to back him up. If they can maintain a respectable seed going into the playoffs, Jamal Murray could return to help push them over the top.

Last year’s Western Conference champion Phoenix Suns, should also not be overlooked in the Western Conference. Led by Chris Paul, Devin Booker, and DeAndre Ayton, the Suns may have the most balanced scoring attack in the NBA right now. That balance will serve them well in the playoffs, as the Suns can beat teams in more ways than your average contender.

NBA Playoffs Picks

NBA playoff picks are vastly different from picks for the regular season, as pressure and physical fatigue is starting to take its toll on both players and teams. Every sign of weakness is considered and picks tend to become more and more detailed. Bettors need to think about the adjustments that are made within a series and how swings in home-court advantage can change the outcome between two teams from one game to the next.

When betting on the playoffs, bettors must also think more about how teams perform late in basketball games. During the regular season, teams are more likely to give players who aren’t stars a chance to finish games for them. But in the playoffs, the teams with the most star power are in the best position to succeed, as the stars are the players who are given the ball down the stretch in the postseason.

Bettors also have to think about how they bet on totals in the NBA playoffs. In the playoffs, defensive intensity ramps up compared to what teams produce in the regular season on the defensive end of the floor. That could produce more unders, but totals are often adjusted to reflect the differences in defensive intensity, and bettors have to compare those adjustments to the changes in offensive productivity that they see in the playoffs.

Conclusion

When making NBA picks, the most important thing to remember is that sports betting is about long-term profits. When following NBA picks, the goal is to win over the long run by following principles of discipline with bankroll management and bet selection.

Bettors who do will maximize their chances of turning a long-term NBA betting profit, while bettors who don’t pretty much end up losing money in the long run.


The news and editorial staffs of The Denver Post had no role in this post’s preparation.

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